Nigeria: Way up for the economy remains as challenging and distant, despite bold reforms by the new regime

Posted on: 26-07-2024

Nigeria: Way up for the economy remains as challenging and distant, despite bold reforms by the new regime

The election of Bola Tinubu as Nigeria's president in May 2023 caused significant changes in market sentiment, displaying excitement and caution. Tinubu's administration has implemented critical economic reforms to stabilize and reinvigorate Africa's largest economy. These policies have generated substantial movements in financial markets, changed investor sentiments, and have impacted society in a big way

Key economic reforms

Removal of fuel subsidy: Tinubu's administration has removed the long-standing fuel subsidy. This subsidy tremendously impacted Nigeria's budget, costing the government billions of dollars each year. While its elimination increased fuel costs and general inflation, markets regarded it positively as an essential step towards budgetary sustainability. The government plans to redirect savings from this subsidy towards crucial infrastructure and social services, potentially promoting long-term economic growth and stability 

Exchange Rate Unification: Nigeria's exchange rates were merged into a single market-driven rate, a considerable advancement. This plan aimed to eliminate the distortions caused by fluctuating currency rates and make Nigeria more appealing to foreign investors. Although the immediate result was a sharp devaluation of the Naira, the long-term goal is a more transparent and stable exchange rate

2024 Budget and Fiscal Policies: The 2024 budget, known as the "Budget of Renewed Hope," laid out a plan for economic recovery and prosperity. The budget emphasized employment growth, macroeconomic stability, and human capital development. Significant investments in defense, education, and infrastructure were announced, focusing on using public-private partnerships to fund massive projects. The administration wanted to raise the revenue-to-GDP ratio from below 10% to 18% through comprehensive tax changes and enhanced public financial management

Impact of Reforms

Inflation - the most pressing issue - going out of control: Despite a positive market sentiment, the economic climate in Nigeria remains challenging. The high inflation rates, worsened by the removal of fuel subsidies and currency adjustments, are driving up the cost of living for many Nigerians. The Central Bank of Nigeria has taken decisive steps to implement tight monetary policies to combat inflation and stabilize the currency, but the results have been mixed. The Purchasing Managers' Index, a key indicator of corporate activity, has shown significant fluctuations, reflecting both economic growth and volatility

Social changes: Mr Tinubu unleashed a range of reforms for the Nigerians aimed at reviving the economy, investments, and providing food security. However, in the short term, these initiatives have resulted in the opposite: a significant surge in living costs. The wage growth has not kept pace with the inflation and has pushed millions of Nigerians into poverty. A record number of multinational companies left Nigeria, leading to more joblessness. Food inflation touched a record-high level of 40.8% in April 2024 due to fuel subsidy removal and increased taxes, which did not spare the commodities dear to people experiencing poverty. This has led to changes in the social structure of the country and increased poverty and impoverishment 

Stock Market Surges: The Nigerian stock market has been among the direct beneficiaries of the new administration's measures. Following Tinubu's inauguration, the Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index (ASI) showed remarkable stability and growth. According to PM News Nigeria and Newsroom Nigeria, the ASI climbed by more than 76%, rising from 55,738.35 points in May 2023 to over 98,383 points by May 2024. This increase is emphasized by growing investor confidence in the government's economic strategy, notably those aiming at fiscal discipline and economic diversification

Long-Term Outlook

Tinubu's administration intends to capitalize on Nigeria's demographic advantages to boost economic growth. With a significant and young population, there is great potential for economic growth through increasing private investment and technological innovation. Financial inclusion policies, including mobile banking and consumer services, are vital for this shift 

Furthermore, the government's commitment to create a favorable economic environment will likely entice domestic and foreign investors. Efforts to improve infrastructure, reduce regulations, and give incentives for businesses are all part of a more extensive strategy to promote sustainable economic development 

Conclusion: In conclusion, market attitudes in Nigeria following President Bola Tinubu's election are a dynamic mix of optimism and caution. The stock market's strong performance demonstrates investor confidence in the administration's economic reforms while persisting obstacles like inflation and currency volatility reflect the intricacies of economic recovery. The ultimate success of Tinubu's plans would be determined by their implementation and the extent to which they provide concrete advantages to Nigerians. As the administration navigates these economic problems, the focus remains  on developing a resilient and inclusive economy capable of long-term growth

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